Date Thesis Awarded

7-2012

Document Type

Honors Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelors of Arts (BA)

Department

Economics

Advisor

Olivier Coibion

Committee Member

Till Schreiber

Committee Member

John Boschen

Abstract

Despite the fact that professional forecasters have significant resources to observe the economy and that the Phillips Curve has been observed and recognized in nearly all literature and economic models, the Survey of Professional Forecasters has shown a consistent under- recognition of the Phillips Curve's effects. This effect is observed across forecast horizons and in many other inflation forecasts, including the Livingston survey, Michigan Survey of Consumers, and the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook forecast. By examining changes in the mis- estimation of the slope of the Phillips Curve over time, we can observe changes in macroeconomic thought, as well as in the case of Greenbook forecasts explain some policy decisions of the Fed.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License.

Comments

Thesis is part of Honors ETD pilot project, 2008-2013. Migrated from Dspace in 2016.

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